Longstanding mass protests are hardly a good thing for economy of any country, including Ukraine. However, experts note that economic and financial situation remains stable, including hryvnia rate. Thus, experts say the existing foreign reserves (18.8 billion USD) are sufficient to meet external obligations and pay for critical imports in 2014.

Despite political controversies in the country, the national currency exchange rate remains under control, and the regulator has all the tools to manage the market, said Sergey Mamedov, CEO of the Independent Association of Ukrainian Banks (IAUB).

In turn, Valery Lytvytski, head of the NBU economical team, calls upon people not to fall for false forecasts about hryvnia rate collapse, as they are nothing but manipulations by certain politicians who want to profit from the situation.

Any talks about the threat of default in Ukraine are groundless, economic development and trade minister Ihor Prasolov adds. "There will be no default in Ukraine, because a drop in the economy was suspended and this is very important. We clearly fulfil our obligations on external debt. Moreover, the Ministry expects inflation at 0.4-0.5% at the end of the year. It's almost nothing," he said.

And though the difficult situation on foreign markets definitely affects the GDP growth, experts say the government keeps the process under control.

To learn about possible risks hryvnia rate faces due to political instability and mass protests, ForUm has asked experts and bankers.

Ruslan Pavlenko, economic analyst:

- The paradox is that Ukrainians follow attentively the exchange rate of dollar and almost do not react to changes of euro rates, but at the same time people travel more to European countries than to the US.

In the first week of December the demand for currency indeed grew, but the National Bank managed to meet it and then started dealing with banks, speculating on the currency. As a result, the dollar rate was stabilized on Friday at the rate of 8.27 UAH/USD, and next Monday it fell to 8.18 UAH/USD.

Tanteli Ratuvuheri, analyst of "Ukrsotsbank":

- NBU should focus on dealing with organizers of this currency exchange disorder. In fact, to stabilize the situation it would be enough to publish unbiased information about real state of affairs and name those responsible for destabilization. Though it might be incorrect, people expect to hear concrete names. 

As for the situation itself, the regulator has sufficient means and instruments to keep it under control.

Ruslan Tsyplakov, head of the "Yuzhkombank" supervisory board:

- Bankers believe that NBU will manage to prevent devaluation of hryvnia. Possible measures include money market interventions, control over speculations, obligation to provide documentary proof for buying large sums of currency. Thus, there are no grounds for panic. In fact, instead of spending hryvnia for foreign currency, people should deposit it, considering that deposit rates are very interesting now.

Vladyslav Kravets, "Prominvestbank" member of the board:

- In the beginning of December, namely on Friday 6, banks bought large sums of dollars and remained without hryvnia. Next Monday they were forced to sell currency due to hryvnia deficit, and the rate fell to 8.18 UAH/USD.  When hryvnia reserves grew, banks started buying dollars again. And when they remain without hryvnia again, the dollar rate will fall due to mass selling. There you have it.

Anton Shaperenkov, deputy director of VAB bank:

- Any political disturbances, especially mass ones, attract attention of even the most steadfast citizens. And though certain outflow of demand deposits can be observed in the banking system now, nothing serious is happening, and exchange rate movements are insignificant.

Oleksand Ohrymenko, president of Ukrainian analytical center:

- Despite panic reports published by some media, mass buying of foreign currency is not wide-spread. For 11months of this year the net purchase of foreign currency by individuals dropped by 5.2 times, comparing to the same period of 2012. And though some dealers keep belaboring the question of default, people are fed up and no longer react to these scary stories.

In 2008, when hryvnia devaluated by 60%, dealers stoked panic moods, but only a few noticed and mentioned that for the next five years regular hryvnia deposits in large banks have helped to recover 18-20% per year or 100% in total. But those who were buying dollars at 9 UAH rate have lost, as they still do not know how to turn them into income. Remember, that currency speculations are profitable only for dealers.

These days they again tried to play currency games, and as a result certain banks increased the rate to 8.4 UAH/USD. However, the National Bank has repelled the attack, and even the greediest dealers can now sell dollars at maximum 8.28 UAH/USD rate.


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