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Results from the first half of 2013/2014 marketing year (MY, July-December) indicate Ukraine will be able to export about 16 million tons of grain. And in November-December, Ukraine will deliver about 6 million tons of grain to the international markets, experts say, the Information-Analytical Bulletin of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine informs.
"We are on schedule for 3 million tons (of grain per month)," said Volodymyr Klimenko, Ukrainian Grain Association head.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, Ukraine as of Nov. 5 has delivered over 10 million tons of grain to foreign markets. Experts say potential grain exports in the current marketing year (July 2013 - June 2014) could reach 30 million tons. In this case, the monthly grain shipment may reach 3.4-3.5 million tons.
For this purpose Ukrainian Railways (UZ) have restored over 1,000 freight cars for the grain transportation, thus, compensating the turnover of cars that was not quick enough due to the necessity of obtaining quality certificates for inland grain transportation.
Considering the singing of the EU Association Agreement, experts predict that the volume of grain exports to the EU can grow considerably, especially after the final adjustment of the national technical regulations to the EU standards. However, even now Ukraine is the largest supplier of grain on this market. In the past marketing year, the country exported about 8 million tons of grain to the EU.
Analysts say that Ukrainian grain producers are clearly focused on exports due to the saturation of the Ukrainian market. According to the forecasts of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the share of Ukrainian grain exports will grow and Ukraine can reach the 2nd place in the world grain exports in 2013/2014 MY. Further vectors can be defined by the traders’ and manufacturers’ expectations of the European integration, as this area opens an access to European markets, but also stimulates greater competition. The government’s policy on export control, according to experts, will be an equally important issue: the presence/absence of export restrictions in 2014.