Conflict around Syria does not subside, but aggravates due to foreign interference. Interests of world leading counties have clashed in Middle East, and the authorities of Syria are ready for military strike of western countries.
"We expect an attack any moment, and we are ready to strike back," a representative of Syria Security Service told France Presse new agency.
UN inspectors investigating into chemical attack in Damask neighborhood on August 21 have already left Syria, but the results of the investigation are not known yet. however, American intelligence states that the responsibility lies with the regime of Bashar Assad. The chemical attack has killed about a thousand and a half civilians. Syrian authorities deny any involvement and blame the army of the opposition.
Barack Obama's administration declared intentions to carry out a military operation against Syria, but US President has not made a final decision on this issue yet. In turn, Pentagon declared it would proceed with operation only as a part of international coalition, but some NATO countries, including Great Britain and Germany, have already refused participation.
ForUm has asked experts about how this military conflict may influence Ukraine and its European integration:
Ihor Semivolos, political scientist, director of the Center for Middle East studies:
- The war in Syria has been lasting for two and a half year. Has it had any impact on Ukraine? I think another 60 or 90 days of US militaries operations against Assad's regime will influence Ukraine as much as it has for 2.5 years.
France will participate within anti-Syrian coalition, thus its participation cannot influence the economy of the EU.
It would be nice if Russia switched to counteraction of US and forgot about trade war with Ukraine, but unfortunately it is unlikely, as there are different agencies charged with the tasks.
Russian fleet in Crimea is a foreign military base, thus Ukraine will have nothing to do with possible participation of Black Sea Fleet in Syrian campaign. However, there might be Ukrainian citizens serving on Russian ships, and Ukraine may be involved indirectly.
If Turkey opens hostilities against Syria, it will not touch Ukraine as well. Fighting center is far from us. Moreover, tourist season is finishing, and there won't be many Ukrainians in Turkey.
Oleksandr Shushko, director of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic cooperation:
- The war in Syria has lasted for 2.5 year, but now it is turning into international conflict involving foreign states. If the situation is left as it is, violence will continuer, but military interference does not solve the problem as well. Syrian does not have political forces, which can build a stable state - either Assad with cruel regime or Islamists with similar bloodthirst.
Syrian conflict will not hit Ukraine directly, but the decision on foreign interference may lead to further illegitimate decisions. "If you can, why should not we?" Recall the illegal decision on Kosovo problem. Russia used it as a ground for invasion of Georgia. If UN counties can enter Syria, then other countries can do the same. It is called the crisis of world law.
Viktor Kaspruk, political scientist, expert on Middle East:
- Military operations may hit Ukraine but indirectly. If we do not support this campaign, Russia may consider our decision as unfriendly, thus it is better to take away all our citizens from Syrian territory before the attack. I don't think that the world community will consider Ukraine a Russia ally just because of the Black Sea Fleet, the whole world knows the conditions of its stay on Ukrainian territory. however, to avoid misunderstandings Ukraine should announce its position openly and loudly.
I believe that proceeding from Syrian situation we should finally understand that dictatorship cannot last forever, and that suffering people should be saved with any means possible.
As for France, its economy is very strong, and participation in anti-Syrian coalitions will hardly hurt it. In fact, France is still thinking about its participation due to political, not economical motives, fearing the reaction of citizens.
Russia's main concern in this situation includes the military installation of the Russian Navy Tartus and the loss of the last ally in Middle East. However, it is does not matter how important Syrian issue is for Russia, it will not forget about Ukraine and its plans on us. Syrian experience proves that we should not consider Russia as an ally.
In turn, Turkey does not want a part of Syrian Kurdistan to become autonomous or join Iranian Kurdistan, but being a NATO member Turkey will not act on its own. And of course, if Turkey decides to participate in the war, it will destabilize Ukraine to some extent. However, we do not have land borders with Turkey, thus I don't think terrorist can come to Ukraine though its territory. For the moment we are not involved into the conflict and I doubt we ever will directly.
Mykola Sungurovski, director of military programs of Rasumkov Center:
- Speaking about economic consequences, they will depend on the results of foreign interference. In the worst scenario, Iran may be involved into the conflict and oil supplies may be disrupted. It turn it will have an impact on gas supplies and its price for Ukraine.
In general, I don't think other stock markets, apart from the oil one, will suffer. Syrian economy practically ceased to exist two years ago, thus the world maker will not miss any production of Syrian region.
If Turkey decides to participate in the conflict, Ukraine may be hit by flows of refugee migrants. But most probably these flows will not head to Ukraine.
As for Russia's position, its course has always been multiple-vector, thus we should not count on Russia to focus on Syria only and to forget about trade conflict with Ukraine.
"We expect an attack any moment, and we are ready to strike back," a representative of Syria Security Service told France Presse new agency.
UN inspectors investigating into chemical attack in Damask neighborhood on August 21 have already left Syria, but the results of the investigation are not known yet. however, American intelligence states that the responsibility lies with the regime of Bashar Assad. The chemical attack has killed about a thousand and a half civilians. Syrian authorities deny any involvement and blame the army of the opposition.
Barack Obama's administration declared intentions to carry out a military operation against Syria, but US President has not made a final decision on this issue yet. In turn, Pentagon declared it would proceed with operation only as a part of international coalition, but some NATO countries, including Great Britain and Germany, have already refused participation.
ForUm has asked experts about how this military conflict may influence Ukraine and its European integration:
Ihor Semivolos, political scientist, director of the Center for Middle East studies:
- The war in Syria has been lasting for two and a half year. Has it had any impact on Ukraine? I think another 60 or 90 days of US militaries operations against Assad's regime will influence Ukraine as much as it has for 2.5 years.
France will participate within anti-Syrian coalition, thus its participation cannot influence the economy of the EU.
It would be nice if Russia switched to counteraction of US and forgot about trade war with Ukraine, but unfortunately it is unlikely, as there are different agencies charged with the tasks.
Russian fleet in Crimea is a foreign military base, thus Ukraine will have nothing to do with possible participation of Black Sea Fleet in Syrian campaign. However, there might be Ukrainian citizens serving on Russian ships, and Ukraine may be involved indirectly.
If Turkey opens hostilities against Syria, it will not touch Ukraine as well. Fighting center is far from us. Moreover, tourist season is finishing, and there won't be many Ukrainians in Turkey.
Oleksandr Shushko, director of the Institute of Euro-Atlantic cooperation:
- The war in Syria has lasted for 2.5 year, but now it is turning into international conflict involving foreign states. If the situation is left as it is, violence will continuer, but military interference does not solve the problem as well. Syrian does not have political forces, which can build a stable state - either Assad with cruel regime or Islamists with similar bloodthirst.
Syrian conflict will not hit Ukraine directly, but the decision on foreign interference may lead to further illegitimate decisions. "If you can, why should not we?" Recall the illegal decision on Kosovo problem. Russia used it as a ground for invasion of Georgia. If UN counties can enter Syria, then other countries can do the same. It is called the crisis of world law.
Viktor Kaspruk, political scientist, expert on Middle East:
- Military operations may hit Ukraine but indirectly. If we do not support this campaign, Russia may consider our decision as unfriendly, thus it is better to take away all our citizens from Syrian territory before the attack. I don't think that the world community will consider Ukraine a Russia ally just because of the Black Sea Fleet, the whole world knows the conditions of its stay on Ukrainian territory. however, to avoid misunderstandings Ukraine should announce its position openly and loudly.
I believe that proceeding from Syrian situation we should finally understand that dictatorship cannot last forever, and that suffering people should be saved with any means possible.
As for France, its economy is very strong, and participation in anti-Syrian coalitions will hardly hurt it. In fact, France is still thinking about its participation due to political, not economical motives, fearing the reaction of citizens.
Russia's main concern in this situation includes the military installation of the Russian Navy Tartus and the loss of the last ally in Middle East. However, it is does not matter how important Syrian issue is for Russia, it will not forget about Ukraine and its plans on us. Syrian experience proves that we should not consider Russia as an ally.
In turn, Turkey does not want a part of Syrian Kurdistan to become autonomous or join Iranian Kurdistan, but being a NATO member Turkey will not act on its own. And of course, if Turkey decides to participate in the war, it will destabilize Ukraine to some extent. However, we do not have land borders with Turkey, thus I don't think terrorist can come to Ukraine though its territory. For the moment we are not involved into the conflict and I doubt we ever will directly.
Mykola Sungurovski, director of military programs of Rasumkov Center:
- Speaking about economic consequences, they will depend on the results of foreign interference. In the worst scenario, Iran may be involved into the conflict and oil supplies may be disrupted. It turn it will have an impact on gas supplies and its price for Ukraine.
In general, I don't think other stock markets, apart from the oil one, will suffer. Syrian economy practically ceased to exist two years ago, thus the world maker will not miss any production of Syrian region.
If Turkey decides to participate in the conflict, Ukraine may be hit by flows of refugee migrants. But most probably these flows will not head to Ukraine.
As for Russia's position, its course has always been multiple-vector, thus we should not count on Russia to focus on Syria only and to forget about trade conflict with Ukraine.
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