For the coming days the weather forecast center promises pouring rain in Ukraine, together with storms and hail. Meteorologists blame air masses coming from the West. According to the director of the Ukrainian weather forecast center Mykola Kulbida, rains in the Carpathians may result in local floods with violent river breathing.

The expert does not rule out that rains in Ukraine may be caused by the echo of the storm in the Krasnodar region of Russia, which caused devastating floods and claimed 171 lives there.
It made ForUm wonder whether the pouring rain can drown Ukraine as badly as it did the Krasnodar region.

Meteorologists and climatologists we asked assured Ukrainians have nothing to fear. The Emergencies Ministry also makes nothing to prepare for possible floods. The Carpathian emergency department believes the flood is hardly possible and Crimea does not expect danger any time soon. "We don't have any grounds to beat an alarm. Our tourist season is going smoothly," spokesman of the Crimean emergencies department Volodymyr Ivanov told ForUm.

Theory of weather apocalypses

Unlike Ukraine, the United States are planning for the worst. With a record-breaking heat in 14 states, which led to a series of forest fires and 30 deaths, the US may face devastating storms if the temperature suddenly drops.

Climatologist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University believe the climate is changing, hence the natural catastrophes will happen more often and with minimal interval of three years. Specialists of the World Meteorological Organization share similar point of view: maximum rise of temperature with a following sudden drop is an unmistakable sign of the global warming, and such situation will be observed all over the world. For example, Spain and Italy are now suffering blazing heat, while Austria is under pouring rain.

Ukrainian climatologist Svetlana Boichenko Doctor of Science underlines: "The global climate change may shorten the return period of natural catastrophes." At the same time the expert calls not to panic, as Ukrainian meteorologists are able to predict a catastrophe and to warn the population in advance.

In turn, the deputy head of the climate research and long-term weather forecast department of the Ukrainian Meteorological Research Institute Vasira Martazinova believes that as a result of the global warming the average annual temperature in Ukraine will increase by 2-3 degrees within the next 50 years. "It may result in more frequent floods in the Transcarpathian region, while Crimea and the Carpathian foothills may suffer frequent mudflows. In its turn, the South Ukraine will have more rains and Kyiv climate will become like Crimean. But I want to underline that the events will develop during the next half a century," the expert pointed out.

The climatologist also noted that even now Ukraine experiences natural disasters often enough. "For example, in the Transcarpathian region the heavy rains and floods happen almost every year, the press just does not report it all. The most risky period is winter-spring, when precipitations are aggravated by snow melting. The flood emergency is theoretically possible also in summer, when precipitations cause a stream rise," Martazinova said.

Ukrainians should not forget that climate changes will not happen at once. All forecasts on global warming are of long-term character. Hence, don't fall into panic waiting for weather apocalypses. Ukraine has seen storms and floods, while tsunami and typhoons are out of the question...for now.


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