The next parliamentary elections are coming closer and closer. The new law has brought the country back to the mixed electoral system. "Slicing" of districts continues and smiling faces of candidates start appearing on city streets. The real company is already in motion, while the official announcement is yet to come.
Due to the fact that the electoral system is mixed, political technologists shake off dust from methods and counter methods for majority voting system, franticly study problems and troubles of regions and districts.
According to our experts, not "sliced" (bordered) districts have already been divided among real candidates for victory. And it looks like it would be difficult to use administrative instruments in the course of election campaign (has undertaken quite strict international obligations regarding the electoral process.
ForUm has asked political scientists about peculiarities of the forthcoming elections from the point of political technologies to be used:
Artem Bidenko, head of the External commercial association of Ukraine:
- Advertising of this election campaign, as well as of the last one, will cost about $2 billion. As for the image constituent, obviously it will be a tough fight with several generations of politicians involved and with various approaches. Obviously they will touch such international issues as NATO, Russia and so on. But at the same time the elections will differ from the previous ones, as majority voting system is back.
Denis Bogus, political technologies scientist:
- Population of Ukraine does not trust political parties, as they are, and some political projects use this thesis to gain points during the election campaign.
At the same time, the oppositional forces try to agree their actions in majority constituencies. In public they say about the project of "united opposition", but we all know that such attempts are always obstructed by someone's ambitions. Hence, out of 225 districts the opposition can agree upon 50 maximum. There are no real and functioning mechanisms for such coordination.
Anyway, this election campaign can be characterized by new positions. For example, the conflict "pro-Ukrainian vs. pro-Russian" has weaken and is being replaced by the binomial "true-false". This concerns first of all majority districts, when each candidate from the same political force will insist on being the only true representative of this forces, accusing another one of hidden games in favour of opponent forces.
Only a few regions have creative mass ideas to influence the rating. The rest of candidates in majority constituencies are getting ready for promotion campaigns with the help of gifts to the population, which works always.
Oleksandr Poteryachin, social psychologist:
- The coming election campaign can be described as 'social and psychological pressure.' Many political forces will appeal to people's fears. This is the easiest approach, as 25% of people are afraid of serious changes in the surrounding reality. And if a person is afraid he is an easy target for manipulations. Example of the fear appeal is BYuT's outpouring about close "collapse" of the country.
Some forces and candidates will try to explain to the people that they are being frightened and will teach the people to overcome the principle "I cannot do anything".
At the same time I want to point out that our politicians are easy to be thrown off balance. They do not know how to carry out 'black' confrontational rhetoric.
Viktor Rybachenko, vice president of political psychologists Association:
- The 'third force' remains the universal political niche. Those who bid on this niche will try to show one-sidedness and narrow-mindedness of both the power and opposition and at the same time will try to absorb the positive from these both sides. The target is the middle class.
Mikhail Prohorov, Russian billionaire, was this very 'third force' at presidential election in Russia. In Ukraine this role is played by Lytyvn, Poroshenko, Klichko and Yatsenyuk.
At the same time, the classical opposition is gradually losing its ability to bring new constructive messages.
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of "Penta" political research center:
- Do not underestimate the role of political messages. They are important, especially when they display the exact political position of a party and meet the public moods. The key message of the opposition for the coming elections is the fight against the current authorities. But the opposition is not homogeneous. The united opposition will focus on the position that it is the main fighter against the power. But there is also a 'new opposition', which will focus on its originality.
I don't believe that populist slogans will work this time, as myth images of the main political players and forces have been busted for the past years and people will not fall for pretty promises. However, many politicians still believe that pretty shape is enough for victory. During this election campaign we will also see the traditional demonstration of ideology.
Yulia Komarova, executive director of "Concept Group" consulting agency:
- The return to the mixed voting system requires from the political forces new approaches. Hence, we won't see this time the binary opposition - contraposition of two main forces.
Elections of 2012 will become a "test of the pen" before presidential election of 2015. New structure of the parliament will create new layout of political forces, which will let to make exact enough forecasts for the presidential campaign.
Due to the fact that the electoral system is mixed, political technologists shake off dust from methods and counter methods for majority voting system, franticly study problems and troubles of regions and districts.
According to our experts, not "sliced" (bordered) districts have already been divided among real candidates for victory. And it looks like it would be difficult to use administrative instruments in the course of election campaign (has undertaken quite strict international obligations regarding the electoral process.
ForUm has asked political scientists about peculiarities of the forthcoming elections from the point of political technologies to be used:
Artem Bidenko, head of the External commercial association of Ukraine:
- Advertising of this election campaign, as well as of the last one, will cost about $2 billion. As for the image constituent, obviously it will be a tough fight with several generations of politicians involved and with various approaches. Obviously they will touch such international issues as NATO, Russia and so on. But at the same time the elections will differ from the previous ones, as majority voting system is back.
Denis Bogus, political technologies scientist:
- Population of Ukraine does not trust political parties, as they are, and some political projects use this thesis to gain points during the election campaign.
At the same time, the oppositional forces try to agree their actions in majority constituencies. In public they say about the project of "united opposition", but we all know that such attempts are always obstructed by someone's ambitions. Hence, out of 225 districts the opposition can agree upon 50 maximum. There are no real and functioning mechanisms for such coordination.
Anyway, this election campaign can be characterized by new positions. For example, the conflict "pro-Ukrainian vs. pro-Russian" has weaken and is being replaced by the binomial "true-false". This concerns first of all majority districts, when each candidate from the same political force will insist on being the only true representative of this forces, accusing another one of hidden games in favour of opponent forces.
Only a few regions have creative mass ideas to influence the rating. The rest of candidates in majority constituencies are getting ready for promotion campaigns with the help of gifts to the population, which works always.
Oleksandr Poteryachin, social psychologist:
- The coming election campaign can be described as 'social and psychological pressure.' Many political forces will appeal to people's fears. This is the easiest approach, as 25% of people are afraid of serious changes in the surrounding reality. And if a person is afraid he is an easy target for manipulations. Example of the fear appeal is BYuT's outpouring about close "collapse" of the country.
Some forces and candidates will try to explain to the people that they are being frightened and will teach the people to overcome the principle "I cannot do anything".
At the same time I want to point out that our politicians are easy to be thrown off balance. They do not know how to carry out 'black' confrontational rhetoric.
Viktor Rybachenko, vice president of political psychologists Association:
- The 'third force' remains the universal political niche. Those who bid on this niche will try to show one-sidedness and narrow-mindedness of both the power and opposition and at the same time will try to absorb the positive from these both sides. The target is the middle class.
Mikhail Prohorov, Russian billionaire, was this very 'third force' at presidential election in Russia. In Ukraine this role is played by Lytyvn, Poroshenko, Klichko and Yatsenyuk.
At the same time, the classical opposition is gradually losing its ability to bring new constructive messages.
Volodymyr Fesenko, head of "Penta" political research center:
- Do not underestimate the role of political messages. They are important, especially when they display the exact political position of a party and meet the public moods. The key message of the opposition for the coming elections is the fight against the current authorities. But the opposition is not homogeneous. The united opposition will focus on the position that it is the main fighter against the power. But there is also a 'new opposition', which will focus on its originality.
I don't believe that populist slogans will work this time, as myth images of the main political players and forces have been busted for the past years and people will not fall for pretty promises. However, many politicians still believe that pretty shape is enough for victory. During this election campaign we will also see the traditional demonstration of ideology.
Yulia Komarova, executive director of "Concept Group" consulting agency:
- The return to the mixed voting system requires from the political forces new approaches. Hence, we won't see this time the binary opposition - contraposition of two main forces.
Elections of 2012 will become a "test of the pen" before presidential election of 2015. New structure of the parliament will create new layout of political forces, which will let to make exact enough forecasts for the presidential campaign.
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