"A gas price in 2012 will not grow, on the contrary, a fall is expected. Even if negotiations will be ineffective, a price for natural gas will be around USD 380/1,000 cu m on average over the year," Omelchenko has said. At the same time, he added that statements of some politicians about an increase of the gas price next year to USD 450 are groundless.
According to him, since the gas price is calculated proceeding from the oil price over nine months, in Q1 and Q2 next year it may be a bit higher then on average over the year and make up about USD 400-USD 420/1,000 cu m. The expert reminded that the largest oil price growth in the world was in Q4, 2010 and in Q1, 2011. Currently, it is at USD 103/barrel, therefore, there are no reasons for the gas price growth.
The expert also informed that next year, the oil price on the world market will make up about USD 90-USD 100/barrel. According to him, a potential for its increase now has exhausted and there will be no sources which would promote a price growth.
As reported, Ukraine conducts negotiations with Russia on revision of gas contracts of 2009 over 1.5 years, since it considers a price for Russian gas as "fettering and unfair." The parties doubt that negotiations will end by the end of the current year, although just such terms have been aired earlier.
A price for natural gas for Ukraine in Q4, 2011, makes up about USD 400/1,000 cu m. The Ukrainian government lays down the average price for Russian gas at USD 414-416 in the draft budget 2012, which currently has been prepared for the second reading in the Parliament.
By expert estimates, in case of the signature of new gas agreements between Ukraine and Russia, the gas price may be about USD 200-USD 250/1,000 cu m. At the same time, according to them, Ukraine will have to go to creation of two joint-stock enterprises on the basis of the Ukrainian GTS with Gazprom and to make additional political concessions. "The first variant - Ukraine's accession to EurAsEC, the second - denunciation of membership in the European Energy Community by Ukraine," the experts believe.
Ukraine's withdrawal from the energy community may lead to frustration of the Association Agreement with the EU, negotiations about which have been actually completed. At the Ukraine-EU Summit in Kyiv December 19, as it is expected, it will be announced about their completion.
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