On June 11, Timoshenko made the government to return 93% of "Krivorozhstal" stocks to the state property. She announced the state of war. But it is not the war with tycoons, as it was expected, it is the war against Yushchenko and his environment.

The governmental resolution of June11 has nothing in common with the economy of Ukraine. That resolution charged the Ministry of Justice with control on execution of the court decision on returning the stocks to the state. The court examination on that case has not been finished yet, that is why there is not any serious investor to purchase the damned plant. Everybody will wait for clearness concerning the status of the enterprise and the re-privatization in general.

At the same time Timoshenko’s haste to conduct the tender is the method to show who is boss of situation. She charged the State Property Fund with preparation of shortened procedure of tender.

We remind the previous situation when on May 27  representatives of Investment Metallurgical Union (IMU), exhausted by the court examinations, proposed to the state the voluntary settlement. IMU is the owner of "Krivorozhstal." In a couple of days, the sate secretary, Alexander Zinchenko, breaking the Timoshenko’s silence said that the voluntary settlement would be the best solution for existing problem. And on June 2 the president, Viktor Yushchenko, supported voluntary settlement without any intention to ask Timoshenko’s opinion.

But, on June 6, Timoshenko made null and void good intentions of Ukrainian president by charging the State Property Fund of Ukraine with the re-sale of "Krivorozhstal." On June 11, Timoshenko demanded the Ministry of Justice to deprive Akhmetov and Pinchuk plant’s stocks.

So, the greatest metallurgical enterprise of Ukraine turned into the reason for a quarrel between Timoshenko and Yushchenko & Co.
Julia and they

It was in vain to expect Timoshenko to be the part of Yushchenko’s team.

The obvious fact is that Timoshenko wants to be the single leader of the team. This fact was concealed by revolutionary euphoria. She claims to be the brain of the legislative body.

Now, in the context of coming elections, Timoshenko is expected to conflict crucially with presidential team. If the conflict burns the rubber and touches Yushchenko, Timoshenko will brake for sure. To fight in public against "orange tycoons" is the one thing; to fight against popular president is another thing.

The fight for the power will be the main plot of the elections-2006.
Julia and elections

The parliamentarian faction BJT (Block of Julia Timoshenko) rose for two times in number for four months. NSNU ("Narodny Soyus 'Nasha Ukraina'," Yushchenko's party headed by Roman Bezsmertny) lost Ukrainian Civil Party (UCP) in the same period. That is why Timoshenko does not need to unite with NSNU. Due to the post of the prime minister, Timoshenko zealously restores her business environment. Her protégés on the administrative posts (the chief of Security Service of Ukraine, Turchinov, and the head of Lugansk State Administration, Danilov) made a good showing. Timoshenko’s rate is nearly equal to Yushchenko’s one. Why should she unite with anyone?

Julia and Russia

Timoshenko’s position concerning "Russian question" differs from the presidential team.

The relations with Moscow influence the economic achievements or, frankly speaking, failures of Ukrainian power. Putin still has not known yet how he should better use the conflict among Ukrainian power Olympus. But it is look like he will support Timoshenko’s ambitions for sure. Timoshenko’s meetings with Russian authorities will finish with triumph unlikely the meetings of Yushchenko’s representatives.

Such position of Timoshenko is favorable for the next elections. 

Julia and the opposition

After Yushchenko’s victory, Lady J visited Donetsk with the peace mission. She made very wise gesture. Unlike her, the presidential team announced the war against the opposition. That did harm to power and presidential prestige.

Moreover, Timoshenko expressed her position against such repressions. 

Julia and political reform

The issue on political reform and changes of electoral law for the election-2006 will wait for its time to make Ukrainian political beau monde boiling. The question on credentials of power branches will cause the colleagues to be enemies to each other.

Timoshenko is interested in political reform because she does not need the strong presidential center which she cannot influence on.

But the support of it expressed by Timoshenko will be the signal for war between her and the presidential team which wants to keep Kuchma’s order in that question.

She will make it if she feels threat of her dismissal or weakness of presidential team.

The dismissal of Timoshenko will be the beginning of her strongest opposition. It will be the only way for her to win the elections.

According to common sense, Julia Timoshenko is the greatest problem for Ukrainian power because both, to get rid of her or to yield to her, mean the death for power.

Gennady Dontsov

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