Ukrainian experts believe that Ukraine has a good chance to get a USD 15 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko had earlier said that the IMF Executive Board is to discuss the new Stand-By Arrangement for Ukraine on July 28, 2010. The Board last held a meeting on Ukraine a year ago, on July 28, 2009 that resulted in extending SDR 2.1 billion (USD 3.3 billion) to Ukraine within a previous Stand-By Arrangement signed in 2008.

That was the last disbursement received by Ukraine from the International Monetary Fund so far as the latest presidential elections and the lack of progress in economic reforms had suspended the country's cooperation with the IMF.

According to analyst Serhiy Fursa with Astrum Investment Management, at the moment we have no official confirmation from the IMF that the Executive Board will consider the loan for Ukraine on July 28.

However, Ukraine really has a good chance to get soon the IMF loan in the amount of SDR 10 billion (or USD 15 billion at current exchange rates). The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's parliament, had promptly passed a lot of laws required by the IMF, including changes to the 2010 state budget to reduce the deficit to 5% of GDP, while the government recently announced the increase from August 1, 2010 of gas prices for households and municipal heating companies by 50%.

Thus, experts of the company retain the expectations that Ukraine will receive USD 5 billion from the IMF in 2010, and the first tranche is most likely in August 2010. It is also expected that the government will ask for the IMF's permission to use at least USD 2 billion from the funds received in 2010 to cover the budget deficit.


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