Bankers believe that the dynamics of the hryvnia’s exchange rate on the inter-bank currency market will depend on the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine, ForUm informs, referring to Ukrainian News.
«The exchange rate increased further to 8.20-8.25 UAH/USD today. In any case, tomorrow will indicate whether there will be intervention by the National Bank,» said Vasyl Kravets, a member of the board of Prominvestbank.
Kravets also said that the hryvnia could strengthen if the National Bank of Ukraine intervened on the market on July 30.
«If the regulator does not react strictly in volumes that are sufficient to cover the accumulated demand, then it is difficult to guess the change,» he added.
Oleksandr Okhrymenko, an expert with Ukrhazbank, agreed that the hryvnia’s exchange rate in the near future would be closely linked to the National Bank of Ukraine’s currency interventions.
According to Okhrymenko, a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia should also not be expected.
Okhrymenko said that an increase in export revenues at the end of this year would have a significant effect on the hryvnia, particularly export revenues from foodstuffs and metals and the return of dollar investments on the eve of the presidential elections.
He forecast that the situation on the currency market would be radically different in the first half of 2010: the dollar’s exchange rate will fluctuate around 7.3-7.5 UAH/USD on the inter-bank currency market and its cash rate will fluctuate around 6.8-7.5 UAH/USD.
Moreover, Okhrymenko said that surplus foreign currency would begin to accumulate as a result of the ban on foreign-currency loans and that this would result in a strengthening of the hryvnia.
Eduard Nazarenko, the head of the department of regulation of currency positions at the Khreschatyk bank, said that the recent steady rise of foreign currencies against the hryvnia on the inter-bank and cash markets against the backdrop of the continuing rise of the official exchange rate of foreign currencies against the hryvnia, the increasing volume of the National Bank of Ukraine’s interventions on the currency market, and the rise of the dollar’s average exchange rate were provoked by increasing panic-induced demand for foreign currency because there are no objective reasons.
According to Nazarenko, the National Bank of Ukraine continues to have a certain degree of influence on the current situation on the inter-bank currency market: it refrained from intervening on the market on Monday, July 27, and met only one-third of the demand from commercial banks on Tuesday.
Nazarenko said that it should also be noted that the National Bank of Ukraine has intervened on the currency market twice (on July 23 and 28) to facilitate currency-exchange operations (it stipulated that foreign currency bought from the National Bank of Ukraine should be sold to the public only through the cash offices of commercial banks and exchange bureaus within five days).
«Thus, the National Bank of Ukraine also began influencing the cash market for foreign currency through concrete and efficient measures, although the volumes of its interventions are thus far insufficient. The cash rate of foreign currencies will most likely respond to these events within a few days by lowering to 7.85-7.95 UAH/USD,» he said.
At the same time, many bankers are refusing to forecast the dynamics of the hryvnia’s exchange rate on the inter-bank currency market in the future.
As Ukrainian News reported, the National Bank of Ukraine has decided to hold foreign-currency auctions on the inter-bank currency market on Wednesdays and Fridays and conduct interventions on the market on Mondays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays in the second quarter of 2009.
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