Is it true that the world financial crisis "is guilty" of Ukrainian economic problems?
If there was brain there could have been concussion.
When prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko said that the world crisis did not threaten Ukraine, her words were doubted immediately. But she was not that wrong: the global financial crisis is not fatal for us due to pure dissociation of Ukrainian and world economies. The true cause of economic problems in the country is internal system decline.
Under the conditions of permanent repartition of political and economic influence spheres the "safety factor" of the national agricultural complex exhausted itself ahead of schedule. But Ukrainian elite traditionally blames the rivals or Alan Greenspan (former Federal Reserve Board Chairman), who did not keep an eye on the ball and missed the threat of bankruptcy for the leading banks, which in its turn led to the collapse and economic crisis all over world. Poor Greenspan delivered his apologies, but if he knew about the origin of Ukrainian economic decline he would have been more restrained. He is definitely not guilty of hryvnia-dollar races, bankruptcy of Ukrainian banks and stagnation of the domestic stock market.
The crisis in Ukraine has not happen suddenly. The country has been going to default for a long time. We used to keep metallurgy and chemistry as the main exporters, and the ideas to expand Ukrainian export did not find support - why should we strain ourselves and think about new missions while the mentioned above industries were working just fine?
But his fall Ukrainian export "happiness" came to its end - Nikopol ferroalloy plant collapsed first, then plants in Mariupol and Kryvyi Rih joined the club.
The question is whether it was impossible to foresee the lack of demand. What were Economy ministry and main committees doing? Why did Nikopol plant increase the production by 29 percent and clog up storages with useless alloys?
Metallurgists are not the only victim. President of UkrAvto concern Tariel Vasadze told recently that AvtoZaz had to reduce the production by 40% because of sudden decline of demand for cars. It means that the factory is facing staff cut offs. And who will explain those workers that the crisis did not start yesterday, but a year ago, that the car marker is stuffed and that WTO membership provides for planned reduction of production at AvtoZaz, while rivals do their best to occupy the market?
The authorities never had time to put order in this sphere, as well as they never had time for the banking system and stock market. Ukrainian stock market has not collapse only because there is nothing to collapse. Ten years ago, when I was s student, I visited a hall of the First stock trade system - a small room with ten computers. "It is now New York, but in five years the work will be in full swing," one of the operators told me then.
He was almost right. In 2001 a program of stock market development was presented in Kyiv, and its realization would have made Ukraine a leading regional platform for stock of domestic and foreign companies. There was only one little thing left - to adopt five laws and to purchase necessary equipment. Money for equipment was never allotted, and deputies managed to adopt only one law "On joint stock companies", which was edited with some many amendments that it is impossible to find sense in it now.
There is no surprise that domestic companies prefer foreign stock markets, but they are not backed and supported by the government there. That's why they are the first to get swipe.
The banking system is no better. For a longtime our banks served big financial and industrial groups and fully depend on such structures. The development of the system started five-seven years ago when foreign banks risked coming to Ukraine. People risked to open deposits and mass crediting started.
However, Ukraine failed to pass to the civilized banking relations. Hryvnia rates jumps as a flea, and every surge of currency activity caused by aspirations of certain citizens to gain money. There are no objective reasons and grounds for sudden revaluation or devaluation of the national currency, and have never been due to the fact that hryvnia rate is formed according to the central bank settings, not by means of intersection of demand and supply.
And what is interesting, specialists persuade the society in artificial origin of this or that quote, but cannot influence the situation.
I dare to assume that in case IMF gives us a load hryvnia will go back to 5-5.55 UAH/UDSD corridor, as the major part of the loan is aimed at strengthening of the national currency. But such "stability" won't last long, as according to the data of "City-group" bank analytical researchers Ukraine will have to pay 55-60 billion dollars of external debt
It turns out that whatever you examine, but the financial crisis has nothing to do with our problems. We have to deal with inner problems first and only then to allude to Greenspan, Bush or other would-be (in our opinion) crisis managers.
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