During one of the round of Ukraine-Russia negotiations, the World Bank has published the results of researches on the influence of oil and gas prices on Ukraine’s economy. The very “gas” chapter of the analysis is very popular and interesting now because it is written by European economists who neatly base the propriety of gas price increase for Ukraine from $50 per 1.000 cubic metres. They are astonished with so reduced price and propose to compare Ukraine’s $50 with $235 for Europe.
According to the WB, Ukraine’s total volume of energy resource import makes 16% out of its gross domestic product. This index consists of 7.5% of oil and 5.5% of gas. It exceeds Germany’s index by 22 times more Germany’s index. “The huge consumption of these resources makes Ukraine weak and vulnerable to gas and oil price increase,” say the WB experts. They also make distressing conclusions: “If Urals (Russian export mixture) costs $57 per barrel in 2006 and then decrease to $54 per barrel in 2007 and if Russian and Turkmen gas increase form $105 up to $126 (by 110%) per 1,000 cubic metres the negative influence on the gross domestic product will make 4% during the first year of the price shock and 3% the next year.” “The primary energy supply of Ukraine exceeds its final usage by 71%,” stated the authors of the research mentioning that the same index for the EU is 45% and for Russia – 50%.
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